FPL: GW5 Preview

Captains, Salah or no Salah?, one's to watch, differential of the week, and my transfer thoughts.

The Captain

Aguero (11.3). The Man City striker tops every captain poll I’ve seen this week by some margin. Aguero tops the charts for shots on goal with 20 (12 in the box), and faces a Fulham side who have conceded 12 big chances and 47 shots in the box, more than any other team in the league. Although there’s always a chance of rotation, there’s nothing to suggest Aguero won’t start vs Fulham, and we all know he’s capable of hitting a huge score on his day. He will definitely be my captain for GW5.

Hazard (10.7). If you like being different then Hazard is the only other player I’d consider captaining this week. Chelsea welcome Cardiff to Stamford Bridge, and will more than likely dominate from start to finish. Warnock has even said that Cardiff will have a go, which could give Hazard the space to cause some damage. Hazard is one form with 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, although his attacking stats are a slight concern with only 3 of his 10 shots being on target, although he has created 10 chances (3rd for midfielders overall).

To Salah Or Not To Salah?

This question has been asked more than a few times within the FPL community over the last couple of weeks. For reference, Salah’s next 8 fixtures are [tot, SOU, che, MCI] [hud, CAR, ars, FUL], and he tops the midfield charts for shots on goal with 19 (12 in the box), 5 of those being big chances and has also created 13 chances (also top amongst midfielders).

My advice would be, if you own him and aren’t on a WC, keep and captain at home to Saints in GW6. You could then look to move him on for his tricky fixtures [che, MCI] in GW7-8. This will carry a lower risk than transferring him out now, as he won’t be captained by many in those GWs, whereas he’ll have heavy captaincy backing in GW6. You could then WC after GW8 to bring him back for his favourable run of fixtures GW9-12, where he will likely be the most captained player in GWs 10 (CAR) and 12 (FUL).

If you’re on a WC I would probably go without, by selecting him you are kind of committing to owning him through his tough fixtures GW5-8, and if you’re only going to captain him in one of those GWs he isn’t worth his 13.0 valuation. I would have a plan in place to get him back in GW9 or 10 though.

Personally I’m not wildcarding and will be keeping him and captaining him in GW6 (SOU) and hoping he scores big to give me an advantage over those who have gone without on their WC. I’ll then look to downgrade him to be able to afford Kane in for Ings GW7. Kane has [hud, CAR] GW7-8, and he looks the best captain option in GW8 (CAR). I’ll then WC Salah back into my side after GW8.

One’s to Watch

Here I highlight the players I’ll be keeping an eye on as potential transfer options in the lead up to my WC after GW8.

Kane (12.5) & Lukaku (11.0). If you’re looking at going without Salah over the next 4 GWs, these two premium strikers could be good options to store your budget. Kane has yet to hit top form but has three easy fixtures [bri, hud, CAR] GW6-8 and has still managed 2 goals from 4 big chances for the season so far. Lukaku has come into a bit of form over the last couple of weeks, scoring a brace for United in GW4 and netting three for Belgium over the international break, albeit against weak opposition. Even so Lukaku’s fixtures GW5-8 are [wat, WLV, whm, NEW], the latter two sides loitering in the relegation zone. He could also be an interesting captain differential vs NEW GW8 as well.

Mitrovic (6.7) & Wilson (6.2). Both these budget strikers currently offer excellent value for money, and look perfect third striker options. There is also a case for owning both and investing budget elsewhere. Mitrovic is the leagues joint top goal scorer with 4 goals, and has the underlying stats to back it up, ranking second for shots on goal (18 shots, 12 in the box, 5 big chances), behind Aguero. His fixtures aren’t the best over the next 4 though [mci, WAT, eve, ARS]. In contrast Wilson has great fixtures [LEI, bur, CPL, wat], as well as great stats (14 shots, 14 in the box, 7 big chances). He’s only netted twice though suggesting his finishing hasn’t been the best.

Lucas Moura (7.3) For those who own Mkhitaryan, Lucas Moura looks an obvious switch. Moura has scored 20 FPL points in the last two GWs, with a heat map against Watford that showed him as the furthest forward Spurs attacker. However he has scored with every one of his shots on target (3), so his output may not be sustainable.

Trippier (6.0). With Liverpool’s fixtures about to turn, Trippier could be an option to consider as a replacement for Robertson in GWs7-8, when Spurs play [hud, CAR] and Liverpool face [che, MCI]. Trippier has made the most crosses (31) of all defenders, as well as creating 7 chances. He also looks to be on some direct free kicks, having already scored from one this season.

Differential of the Week

Each week I will identify a player with under 10% ownership who offers a good mid to long term option to boost your team up the rankings.

David Silva (8.5) 7.1% ownership. Silva hasn’t registered any FPL attacking points in the last 2GWs, however has great underlying stats, creating 13 chances (3 big chance) in the last 3GWs, joint top in the game along with Salah. With fixtures of [FUL, car, BRI] in the next 3GWs, points will surely start to flow for Silva going forward.

My Transfer Thoughts

I’ll very likely be saving a transfer this week unless anyone is confirmed out in the press conferences tomorrow. It’s a bit of a risk seeing as Zaha and Mkhitaryan may not start, however I don’t fancy anyone to replace Mkhi in his price bracket, and Zaha has been pictured in training so I think he’ll start, he also has a nice fixture (hud). Cedric and Wan Bissaka offer half decent bench options if needed.

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