FPL

GW8 Team Analysis

My Rank Doubles, Kane Flops, Never Bench a Wolves Defender, FPL Tilt

Previous Rank: 64,565. Free transfers: 1

GW Points: 50(-4). GW Average: 50. GW Rank: 2,774,687. Overall Rank: 137,401

The worst feeling in FPL (if you’re an addict like I am) is the GW where your overall rank doubles, especially if you’re not ranked deep in the top 10k. It ranks right up there alongside transferring out a player before he scores double digits, or your differential captain being taken off injured after 10 minutes while the popular option bangs in a hat trick (ok maybe that one’s worst).

A GW score of 50(-4) would normally not be too damaging when the average is 50, however the top 10k average came in at 63, that’s 17 pts lost on the top managers. The main damage was done by the Wolves defence, Wilson, Richarlison and those that captained Hazard.

Another painful scenario in FPL is when you own a player and you still get a red arrow when he scores points. Hazard had an effective ownership (%Ownership + %Captains) of 128% in the top 10k, meaning (as I didn’t captain Hazard) I lost ground on the top 10k by 28% of Hazard’s points (14 x 0.28 = 3.9pts). At least I now own him.

Transfer Analysis

Transfers Out: Salah (3), Mane (3), Ings (1) = 7pts. Transfers in: Kane (1), Hazard (14), Gudmundsson (7) -4 = 18pts. My transfers actually netted me a positive return of 11pts.

However it has to go down as a fail, as Kane blanked at home to Cardiff, as well as rubbing salt into the wound by picking up a yellow card. It’s easy to say in hindsight getting Kane in as captain was the wrong decision, due to Eriksen and Ali being out injured. However, he’d just scored 3 goals in the last 2 games, and everyone thought Spurs would put more than one past Cardiff. If the GW were to be played again there’s a good chance I’d make the same decision.

Lesson Learnt

Don’t bench a Wolves defender!!! I’m still not entirely sure why i played Foster over Patricio, other than Watford were playing at home and Wolves away. This highlights the dangers of blindly following a home / away rotation, which on further analysis I clearly did. Wolves have conceded the 2nd least big chances (4) over the last 6 GWs, whereas Watford have conceded the second most (16). Wolves have kept 4 clean sheets so far this season, while Watford have just kept the 1, in GW1. Patricio was even coming off the back of a 10pt haul in GW7. The  lesson here is to always analyze the stats before choosing between two players, and don’t just follow your immediate perception of the fixture.

FPL Tilt

The consensus in the FPL community is that the worst time to have a bad GW is before an international break, I assume because it’s then 2 weeks before you can put things right. I disagree, I’d argue that the best time to have a bad GW is before an international break, because there is 2 weeks to get your head straight and make the right decisions moving forward.

In poker, tilt is when you get a bad beat (lose a hand you statistically shouldn’t have) and this negatively impacts on the decisions you make in future hands, making your future decision making sub-optimal. The same principle can apply to FPL, a bad GW can lead to sub-optimal decisions being made for the next GW, because you’re still angry, annoyed at your poor score. This could take the form of knee jerk transfers, point hits, and the lack of desire to look at the stats / whole picture before making your next decision.

Being an FPL addict, it’s taken around a week for me not to be annoyed that my rank has doubled and I’ve slipped from 10k in GW1 to outside the top 100k in GW8. I now have another week to start to think clearly about my planned WC and make decisions that aren’t impacted by my FPL tilt. I still hate international breaks though!

Final Thoughts

My dramatic drop in rank was mainly due to my poor benching decision making, which cost me 12pts. For the most part i had the right players in my squad, just not in the right order, so that’s something. As planned, the WC is now active, so I can only hope it will be the catalyst for some green arrows over the next few weeks.

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